The Keys to La Costa

The NCAA Men's Championship is here! The women just wrapped up, with Northwestern pulling off a Villanova-over-Georgetown-level upset over Stanford in the match play finals to earn their first national championship. Might we see similar fireworks on the men’s side over the next six days at Omni La Costa? Here are some key holes and storylines to keep an eye on.

Year 2 at La Costa

This is year two at La Costa following a Gil Hanse redesign of the North Course. One of the many potential benefits of having a long-term, potentially permanent home for the national championship is that it rewards familiarity. Programs and players who consistently qualify for the NCAAs year after year have a distinct advantage over those making their first appearance. I observed this during the practice rounds, where new coaches were trying to take it all in, while returning coaches focused more on what had changed since last year.

Some tee boxes have been moved based on observations and lessons learned from last year’s event. Several coaches noted that the rough appeared visibly thinner this year. But the first order of business was to assess the firmness of the greens and the condition of the bunkers compared to last year. The course’s newness led to very firm greens and a higher proportion of plugged lies in bunkers — a combination that made certain holes particularly tough to score on (more on that later).

Given that coaches tend to have a much longer memory for losses than they do for successes, I asked many of the returning coaches which holes had stuck in their craw since last year’s tournament. Most could immediately name the hole their team struggled with the most — and the one they’re most eager to solve this week.

I analyzed each of the 17 returning teams and their hole-by-hole scoring averages relative to the field. Then, I normalized these against each team’s overall scoring to determine which holes, relatively speaking, caused them the most trouble. The result reveals a unique fingerprint for each team — and something to watch for this week during stroke play.

By my count, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State — the latter if you include their two transfers from Cal — each have four returning players in their starting five this year.

Success Leaves Clues

Looking more closely at last year’s results, you can identify which holes were most important for separating teams during stroke play. We first compared scoring averages between teams that made versus missed the 54-hole cut. The key separators were the par-4 15th hole, followed by three of the four par 3s. In contrast, the 14th hole was simply difficult for everyone.

When comparing the eight teams that reached match play to those that didn’t, the 16th hole (pictured in the header above) edged ahead of the 15th as a key differentiator. This relatively short hole, with a shallow and exceptionally firm green — modeled after the 12th at Augusta — played a pivotal role down the stretch last year.

Some of this scoring differential can be attributed to the firmness of last year’s new greens. But looking at year-over-year data from the women’s tournament, we see: (a) scoring average dropped by about 0.8 strokes, (b) volatility on the 15th was less extreme this year, yet (c) the 15th still ranked among the course’s most volatile holes.

Match Play vs. Stroke Play

Match play is a different beast, and interestingly, some of the least impactful holes in stroke play became pivotal in match play. Two of these crucial holes come early in the round: across the 35 total holes played during the seven match-play matches last year, the 4th and 6th holes were won or lost an astonishing 25 times. The par-3 12th had the third-highest win rate — not surprising, given that a par on this 245-yard beast was enough to win 20 of those 35 match-play holes.

The Haskins Three-Horse Race

• David Ford of North Carolina was in the driver’s seat for the Haskins Award heading into the postseason. However, he is the only one of the ten finalists not competing at La Costa this week, as his Tar Heels did not advance out of regionals. Voting for the Haskins ends with the close of individual stroke play on Monday, and both Jackson Koivun (Auburn) and Luke Clanton (Florida State) could win the award with a victory or strong showing. It’s a three-horse race — but one of the contenders is already making his professional debut at Colonial this weekend.

• Speaking of professional debuts, all three golfers could end up playing on the PGA TOUR this summer. If Koivun wins the individual title or the Haskins Award this week, he would cross the 20-point threshold to earn his tour card through PGA TOUR University Accelerated. While he’s already on pace to earn his 20th point by playing in the Palmer Cup in early June, those benefits wouldn’t officially apply until after his junior year. Could a big performance — and a potential back-to-back national title for Auburn — fast-track Koivun’s professional future?

• PGA Tour University

• Although Ford has mathematically clinched the No. 1 spot in this year’s PGA TOUR U class, there’s still plenty on the line for seniors competing at La Costa. Seniors can earn up to 40 WAGR points — 25 for winning a 1000-point event, plus a 15-point bonus specific to PGA TOUR U seniors — meaning there’s still room for major movement within the PGA TOUR U rankings (2nd–5th, 6th–10th, 11th–25th) through Monday’s final putt. According to PGATOUR.com, every senior down to No. 43 Shubham Jaglan (South Florida) has something to play for. Even No. 44 Carson Herron (New Mexico), No. 48 Kuangyu Chen (Cal), and No. 49 Nels Surtani (Purdue) have a mathematical chance — though they’d need a win plus help from others.

• You don't need to look any further than Johnny Keefer (golf's version of Brock Purdy?) to see what even Americas Tour status can do for a player. As his Baylor coach Mike McGraw put it in Episode 34 of the Driven Golf Podcast, "the difference between 25th and 26th is 10,000 miles. You can't even comprehend it."