Junior Golf Rankings: A Deep Dive

For better or worse, when it comes to any competitive endeavor, things are going to get ranked. Chess has its Elo Score. AAU basketball has its recruiting rankings. Professional golf has the OWGR.  Junior golf is no different. While ranking golfers as young as 9 years old seems a bit excessive, junior golf rankings can play a value-added role in a number of ways:

• For coaches: targeting and keeping tabs on potential recruits, knowing which tournaments to go to

• For parents: knowing where your child stands relative to peers and potentially helping with tournament selection

• For players: showing progress over time and creating an incentive for continuous improvement

One of the most beautiful aspects of the game of golf is the simple elegance of the score. Your score on a given round is a reflection and representation of your skill level that day. If you shoot 6 strokes better than a competitor in a tournament, is he going to say, "Well, my swing is better than yours"? The rationale is going to fall on deaf ears. Getting the ball in the hole in as a few strokes as possible is all the matters.

It is interesting that in a game with such a simple, black and white representation of skill level, when it comes time to aggregate all those tournament data points into one comprehensive rank ordering, we get such different results. Currently there are four different junior ranking systems. Each with a different methodology.  Each with their pros and cons. We'll dive into each of these ranking systems in depth over time.  Consider this page Grand Central Station for junior ranking information. We'll link to the deeper dives from here as we continue to explore different aspects over time.

Junior Golf Scoreboard: All Hail the King

If you ever hear someone say, "that kid is ranked 13th in his class" or "my kid is top 100", more than likely they are referring to the Junior Golf Scoreboard ranking. For better or worse, it has become the de facto ranking standard for junior golf.

JGS Overview

• - Tournament scores from 36+ hole events over the last year are included

• - Updated a couple of time per day

• - Tournament scores are compared to a course rating. That course rating starts at the base rating from the course for a given set of tees, but can adjust up or down from -2 to +4 to reflect the course and weather conditions for the day.  This Course Condition Adjustment (CCA) is a subject of some controversy and a lor of confusion

• - A players Scoring Differential (commonly just called 'Diff') is the average of his/her best 75% individual round scoring differentials between the actual score and the adjusted course rating for that round.  Similar to how the world golf handicap system only counts the top 40% of rounds, the resulting Diff metric is not going to reflect the golfers average skill level but rather skill level on an above average day.

• - JGS says the rankings are a weighted aggregation of Scoring Diff (65% weight), a strength of field measure (35%) and bonus points for wins, top 5's and top 10's (10%).  However, it's unclear how those measures which are in different units are actually compiled into one number.  Some rough analysis leads me to believe Diff is the driving at least 90% of the final ranking.

• - Cost: you can view and scroll through the rankings, search tournament results and search for one player by name for free. Filtering the rankings, searching for multiple names requires a subscription ($36.95/year)

Deeper Dives (Coming Soon)

• De-mystifying the Junior Golf Scoreboard Course Conditions Adjustment (CCA)

• The real Junior Golf Scoreboard Weights

• DIff Drift: A Fundamental Flaw with Junior Golf Scoreboard

Golfweek: RIP

Unfortunately, Golfweek stopped producing its rankings as of May 2024. I'm leaving this information here for comparison purposes, in case anybody is inclined to pick up the mantle. Golfweek's methodology was based on Jeff Sagarin ranking framework used for years in college football and college basketball.  The rankings were based on head-to-head comparison of golfers playing in the same tournament round on a given day.  Then it converted those collective wins and losses into a rating number that best reflects the aggregate tournament data. Golfweek's strength was its time-tested Sagarin methodology.  Its weakness was its lack of tournament depth, primarily excluding local tours and state junior tournaments which still hold information value. My opinion is a Golfweek methodology with Junior Golf Scoreboard's depth of tournaments would be the most accurate in junior golf.

Golfweek Overview

• Tournament scores from approximately 250 regional and national 36+ hole events over a rolling 52-week period

• Updated once every week or every other week, on average.  Timing and frequency of updates is a bit of a mystery. (Now gone)

• Rating is meant to be predictive, such that the difference in rating is meant to be an estimate of difference in skill level between the two golfers in the next tournament round

• Cost: free to view and search. No drill down and additional detail beyond what is shown on page.

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AJGA Rolex: Performance over Predictive

The AJGA Rolex rankings are the currency used to determine who gets into its coveted Invitationals, to rank order amongst 'fully exempt' golfers if there are limited spots in a AJGA Open tournament and for awarding its year end All-American teams. The rankings are based on a very finite set of AJGA events plus a handful of national invitationals (Western Junior, U.S. Junior, etc.). And by design it rewards top performances in its events rather than trying to be indicative of overall skill level and/or predictive of future success. The Rolex points very much reward top performances, dropping signficantly from 1st to 2nd, 2nd to 3rd, etc. As such, you can see wild swings in the rankings from one week to the next. A golfer can vault in the top 50 with a big win then drop down to the 300-400 range once the win rolls off.

AJGA Rolex Overview

• Updated weekly (usually on Tuesdays) anytime there's a tournament the prior week

• Points for the winner based on strength of field.  Open events range from 40 to 150 points.  Invitationals and select national events receive 225 points. Points for a tournament can go up (never down) if the field goes on to have success in other events over the course of the calendar year.  Some tournaments have a minimum point amount.

• A golfer's points for an event are based on his/her place finish and are expressed as a percentage of the winner's points. For example a 2nd place finish is always worth 60% of the first place finishers. Fourth place is 35%.  Tenth place is 14%. A full list of the points distribution can be found here. Unlike most other ranking systems, the points for a tie aren't spread across finish positions, but rather all players who tie for a given position receive the full points for that position.  For example, a four-way tie in a AJGA invitational is worth 135 points for all four golfers, rather than being the average of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place finishers (would be 95.4 points each).

• Cost: free and publicly available

Deeper Dives (Coming Soon)

• Quality Points: How AJGA Point Values are Determined

TUGR: the New Kid on the Block

TUGR recently launched a junior ranking which looks promising.  Similar to Golfweek, it is based on head-to-head comparison between golfers playing in the same course on the same day. It attempts to boil down all of the head-to-head data into one Strokes Gained metric, with the top golfer (Miles Russell) as the 0.00 benchmark and every other golfer expressed as a relative number of strokes higher than that. They have ambitious plans for tournament coverage and include events like 18-hole AJGA and USGA qualifiers.  Bonus points for the picture of the 6th green at Ballyneal as their header.

TUGR Junior Overview

• - Updated weekly on Wednesdays

• - Rankings are based on tournaments over the last 18 months with weights rolling off linearly over that timeframe (i.e. recent events weighted more heavily than events in the past)

• - Extensive analytics and comparison points are calculated for each golfer, designed to arm golfers with information to help them improve (data is behind the paywall but can be viewed for the top 10 golfers)

• - Cost: free to see and search rankings; analytical insights start at $12.99/month

Deeper Dives (Coming Soon)

• TUGR vs. Junior Golf Scoreboard: A Deeper Dive

WAGR: Don't Get Me Started

While not a Junior ranking, the World Amateur Golf Rankings is the de facto ranking system for amateur golf and is used to provide exemptions for the U.S. Junior and U.S. Amateur.  As such, it needs to be well understood by junior golfers especially as they start to perform in more elite events. WAGR is operated by the R&A and co-signed by the USGA and has very clear and lofty objectives as describe in its mission statement:

WAGR® Mission Statement
The World Amateur Golf Ranking® / WAGR®, which comprises a women’s ranking and a men’s ranking for elite amateur players, is offered by The R&A and the USGA® as a global service to golf.
Our purpose is to
- Accurately rank players as they compete in competitions
- To provide a ranking system that enables players to compare with each other even though they may not directly compete against each other in events
- To stimulate ambition in players and federations to succeed in development of their game and golfing ability
Through incorporation and assessment worldwide of both amateur and professional events, WAGR aims to be globally recognised as the ultimate ranking system for amateur golf.

Unfortunately, the WAGR methodology in its current form does not live up to its mission statement, leading to gross inaccuracies in its relative ranking.  This can adversely limit opportunities to deserving golfers.

Deeper Dives:

• WAGR Files: Cracking the WAGR Power Rankings